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Linear Regression

Turing is powerful when applied to complex hierarchical models, but it can also be put to task at common statistical procedures, like linear regression. This tutorial covers how to implement a linear regression model in Turing.

Set Up

We begin by importing all the necessary libraries.

# Import Turing and Distributions.
using Turing, Distributions

# Import RDatasets.
using RDatasets

# Import MCMCChains, Plots, and StatPlots for visualizations and diagnostics.
using MCMCChains, Plots, StatsPlots

# Functionality for splitting and normalizing the data.
using MLDataUtils: shuffleobs, splitobs, rescale!

# Functionality for evaluating the model predictions.
using Distances

# Set a seed for reproducibility.
using Random
Random.seed!(0)

# Hide the progress prompt while sampling.
Turing.setprogress!(false);

We will use the mtcars dataset from the RDatasets package. mtcars contains a variety of statistics on different car models, including their miles per gallon, number of cylinders, and horsepower, among others.

We want to know if we can construct a Bayesian linear regression model to predict the miles per gallon of a car, given the other statistics it has. Lets take a look at the data we have.

# Import the "Default" dataset.
data = RDatasets.dataset("datasets", "mtcars");

# Show the first six rows of the dataset.
first(data, 6)
6×12 DataFrame
 Row │ Model              MPG      Cyl    Disp     HP     DRat     WT      
 QS ⋯
     │ String31           Float64  Int64  Float64  Int64  Float64  Float64 
 Fl ⋯
─────┼─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
─────
   1 │ Mazda RX4             21.0      6    160.0    110     3.9     2.62  
    ⋯
   2 │ Mazda RX4 Wag         21.0      6    160.0    110     3.9     2.875
   3 │ Datsun 710            22.8      4    108.0     93     3.85    2.32
   4 │ Hornet 4 Drive        21.4      6    258.0    110     3.08    3.215
   5 │ Hornet Sportabout     18.7      8    360.0    175     3.15    3.44  
    ⋯
   6 │ Valiant               18.1      6    225.0    105     2.76    3.46
                                                               5 columns om
itted
size(data)
(32, 12)

The next step is to get our data ready for testing. We'll split the mtcars dataset into two subsets, one for training our model and one for evaluating our model. Then, we separate the targets we want to learn (MPG, in this case) and standardize the datasets by subtracting each column's means and dividing by the standard deviation of that column. The resulting data is not very familiar looking, but this standardization process helps the sampler converge far easier.

# Remove the model column.
select!(data, Not(:Model))

# Split our dataset 70%/30% into training/test sets.
trainset, testset = splitobs(shuffleobs(data), 0.7)

# Turing requires data in matrix form.
target = :MPG
train = Matrix(select(trainset, Not(target)))
test = Matrix(select(testset, Not(target)))
train_target = trainset[:, target]
test_target = testset[:, target]

# Standardize the features.
μ, σ = rescale!(train; obsdim=1)
rescale!(test, μ, σ; obsdim=1)

# Standardize the targets.
μtarget, σtarget = rescale!(train_target; obsdim=1)
rescale!(test_target, μtarget, σtarget; obsdim=1);

Model Specification

In a traditional frequentist model using OLS, our model might look like:

$$ \mathrm{MPG}_i = \alpha + \boldsymbol{\beta}^\mathsf{T}\boldsymbol{X_i} $$

where $\boldsymbol{\beta}$ is a vector of coefficients and $\boldsymbol{X}$ is a vector of inputs for observation $i$. The Bayesian model we are more concerned with is the following:

$$ \mathrm{MPG}_i \sim \mathcal{N}(\alpha + \boldsymbol{\beta}^\mathsf{T}\boldsymbol{X_i}, \sigma^2) $$

where $\alpha$ is an intercept term common to all observations, $\boldsymbol{\beta}$ is a coefficient vector, $\boldsymbol{X_i}$ is the observed data for car $i$, and $\sigma^2$ is a common variance term.

For $\sigma^2$, we assign a prior of truncated(Normal(0, 100), 0, Inf). This is consistent with Andrew Gelman's recommendations on noninformative priors for variance. The intercept term ($\alpha$) is assumed to be normally distributed with a mean of zero and a variance of three. This represents our assumptions that miles per gallon can be explained mostly by our assorted variables, but a high variance term indicates our uncertainty about that. Each coefficient is assumed to be normally distributed with a mean of zero and a variance of 10. We do not know that our coefficients are different from zero, and we don't know which ones are likely to be the most important, so the variance term is quite high. Lastly, each observation $y_i$ is distributed according to the calculated mu term given by $\alpha + \boldsymbol{\beta}^\mathsf{T}\boldsymbol{X_i}$.

# Bayesian linear regression.
@model function linear_regression(x, y)
    # Set variance prior.
    σ₂ ~ truncated(Normal(0, 100), 0, Inf)

    # Set intercept prior.
    intercept ~ Normal(0, sqrt(3))

    # Set the priors on our coefficients.
    nfeatures = size(x, 2)
    coefficients ~ MvNormal(nfeatures, sqrt(10))

    # Calculate all the mu terms.
    mu = intercept .+ x * coefficients
    return y ~ MvNormal(mu, sqrt(σ₂))
end
linear_regression (generic function with 2 methods)

With our model specified, we can call the sampler. We will use the No U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) here.

model = linear_regression(train, train_target)
chain = sample(model, NUTS(0.65), 3_000);

As a visual check to confirm that our coefficients have converged, we show the densities and trace plots for our parameters using the plot functionality.

plot(chain)

It looks like each of our parameters has converged. We can check our numerical esimates using describe(chain), as below.

describe(chain)
2-element Vector{MCMCChains.ChainDataFrame}:
 Summary Statistics (12 x 8)
 Quantiles (12 x 6)

Comparing to OLS

A satisfactory test of our model is to evaluate how well it predicts. Importantly, we want to compare our model to existing tools like OLS. The code below uses the GLM.jl package to generate a traditional OLS multiple regression model on the same data as our probabilistic model.

# Import the GLM package.
using GLM

# Perform multiple regression OLS.
train_with_intercept = hcat(ones(size(train, 1)), train)
ols = lm(train_with_intercept, train_target)

# Compute predictions on the training data set
# and unstandardize them.
p = GLM.predict(ols)
train_prediction_ols = μtarget .+ σtarget .* p

# Compute predictions on the test data set
# and unstandardize them.
test_with_intercept = hcat(ones(size(test, 1)), test)
p = GLM.predict(ols, test_with_intercept)
test_prediction_ols = μtarget .+ σtarget .* p;

The function below accepts a chain and an input matrix and calculates predictions. We use the samples of the model parameters in the chain starting with sample 200, which is where the warm-up period for the NUTS sampler ended.

# Make a prediction given an input vector.
function prediction(chain, x)
    p = get_params(chain[200:end, :, :])
    targets = p.intercept' .+ x * reduce(hcat, p.coefficients)'
    return vec(mean(targets; dims=2))
end
prediction (generic function with 1 method)

When we make predictions, we unstandardize them so they are more understandable.

# Calculate the predictions for the training and testing sets
# and unstandardize them.
p = prediction(chain, train)
train_prediction_bayes = μtarget .+ σtarget .* p
p = prediction(chain, test)
test_prediction_bayes = μtarget .+ σtarget .* p

# Show the predictions on the test data set.
DataFrame(; MPG=testset[!, target], Bayes=test_prediction_bayes, OLS=test_prediction_ols)
10×3 DataFrame
 Row │ MPG      Bayes     OLS
     │ Float64  Float64   Float64
─────┼─────────────────────────────
   1 │    19.2  18.2018   18.1265
   2 │    15.0   6.11481   6.37891
   3 │    16.4  14.0115   13.883
   4 │    14.3  11.5931   11.7337
   5 │    21.4  25.2662   25.1916
   6 │    18.1  20.6593   20.672
   7 │    19.7  15.7532   15.8408
   8 │    15.2  18.382    18.3391
   9 │    26.0  28.6003   28.4865
  10 │    17.3  14.5752   14.534

Now let's evaluate the loss for each method, and each prediction set. We will use the mean squared error to evaluate loss, given by $$ \mathrm{MSE} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^n {(y_i - \hat{y_i})^2} $$ where $y_i$ is the actual value (true MPG) and $\hat{y_i}$ is the predicted value using either OLS or Bayesian linear regression. A lower SSE indicates a closer fit to the data.

println(
    "Training set:",
    "\n\tBayes loss: ",
    msd(train_prediction_bayes, trainset[!, target]),
    "\n\tOLS loss: ",
    msd(train_prediction_ols, trainset[!, target]),
)

println(
    "Test set:",
    "\n\tBayes loss: ",
    msd(test_prediction_bayes, testset[!, target]),
    "\n\tOLS loss: ",
    msd(test_prediction_ols, testset[!, target]),
)
Training set:
	Bayes loss: 4.651234142170903
	OLS loss: 4.648142085690521
Test set:
	Bayes loss: 15.436086458335751
	OLS loss: 14.796847779051523

As we can see above, OLS and our Bayesian model fit our training and test data set about the same.

Appendix

These tutorials are a part of the TuringTutorials repository, found at: https://github.com/TuringLang/TuringTutorials.

To locally run this tutorial, do the following commands:

using TuringTutorials
TuringTutorials.weave("05-linear-regression", "05_linear-regression.jmd")

Computer Information:

Julia Version 1.6.6
Commit b8708f954a (2022-03-28 07:17 UTC)
Platform Info:
  OS: Linux (x86_64-pc-linux-gnu)
  CPU: AMD EPYC 7502 32-Core Processor
  WORD_SIZE: 64
  LIBM: libopenlibm
  LLVM: libLLVM-11.0.1 (ORCJIT, znver2)
Environment:
  JULIA_CPU_THREADS = 16
  BUILDKITE_PLUGIN_JULIA_CACHE_DIR = /cache/julia-buildkite-plugin
  JULIA_DEPOT_PATH = /cache/julia-buildkite-plugin/depots/7aa0085e-79a4-45f3-a5bd-9743c91cf3da

Package Information:

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  [0d47668e] Xorg_xcb_util_renderutil_jll v0.3.9+1
  [c22f9ab0] Xorg_xcb_util_wm_jll v0.4.1+1
  [35661453] Xorg_xkbcomp_jll v1.4.2+4
  [33bec58e] Xorg_xkeyboard_config_jll v2.27.0+4
  [c5fb5394] Xorg_xtrans_jll v1.4.0+3
  [3161d3a3] Zstd_jll v1.5.2+0
  [0ac62f75] libass_jll v0.15.1+0
  [f638f0a6] libfdk_aac_jll v2.0.2+0
  [b53b4c65] libpng_jll v1.6.38+0
  [f27f6e37] libvorbis_jll v1.3.7+1
  [1270edf5] x264_jll v2021.5.5+0
  [dfaa095f] x265_jll v3.5.0+0
  [d8fb68d0] xkbcommon_jll v0.9.1+5
  [0dad84c5] ArgTools
  [56f22d72] Artifacts
  [2a0f44e3] Base64
  [ade2ca70] Dates
  [8bb1440f] DelimitedFiles
  [8ba89e20] Distributed
  [f43a241f] Downloads
  [9fa8497b] Future
  [b77e0a4c] InteractiveUtils
  [4af54fe1] LazyArtifacts
  [b27032c2] LibCURL
  [76f85450] LibGit2
  [8f399da3] Libdl
  [37e2e46d] LinearAlgebra
  [56ddb016] Logging
  [d6f4376e] Markdown
  [a63ad114] Mmap
  [ca575930] NetworkOptions
  [44cfe95a] Pkg
  [de0858da] Printf
  [3fa0cd96] REPL
  [9a3f8284] Random
  [ea8e919c] SHA
  [9e88b42a] Serialization
  [1a1011a3] SharedArrays
  [6462fe0b] Sockets
  [2f01184e] SparseArrays
  [10745b16] Statistics
  [4607b0f0] SuiteSparse
  [fa267f1f] TOML
  [a4e569a6] Tar
  [8dfed614] Test
  [cf7118a7] UUIDs
  [4ec0a83e] Unicode
  [e66e0078] CompilerSupportLibraries_jll
  [deac9b47] LibCURL_jll
  [29816b5a] LibSSH2_jll
  [c8ffd9c3] MbedTLS_jll
  [14a3606d] MozillaCACerts_jll
  [4536629a] OpenBLAS_jll
  [05823500] OpenLibm_jll
  [83775a58] Zlib_jll
  [8e850ede] nghttp2_jll
  [3f19e933] p7zip_jll